World Grain Situation Texas AM University世界粮食形势德克萨斯市一和大学.pptVIP

World Grain Situation Overview World Supply/Demand Balance Major Producers Consumers Market Conditions Affecting the Major Grain Traders Prices World Macroeconomic Conditions Wheat Market Overview Former Soviet Union Re-emerging As Wheat Exporter Improved Rail Port Infrastructure in Kazakhstan Stimulate Exports Argentine Exports Expected to Decline Due to Short Crop from Dry Weather China’s Imports Drop Due to Excellent Crop Rice Market Overview Thailand is the World’s Leading Exporter More Competition from Vietnam India Growing in Importance Indonesia a Major Importer Growing Demand in Cuba, Nigeria Saudi Arabia China Currency Strengthening Likely to Increase Asian Rice Prices Corn Market Overview Recovering Demand in Latin America Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, El Salvador Ecuador Experience Strong Demand Growth Consumption Has Grown 3.4%/Year for 5 Years Increased Animal Feeding Main Reason for Greater Demand Less Export Competition in Near Term Summary World Grain Markets are Characterized as Highly Dynamic Wide Swings in Price Uncertainty About Weather Other Forces Impacts of Exchange Rates Influenced by Policy and Trade Restrictions Except for Rice, World Supply/Demand for Major Grains In Balanced Tight S/D Balance Can Lead to Large Price Increases Higher Food Costs for Consumers * * Trends, Conditions and Outlook Parr Rosson Professor Director Center for North American Studies Department of Agricultural Economics Texas AM University 6.5 7.2 7.1 7.3 India 8.3 9.0 9.5 9.1 China 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.4 Japan 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.2 United Kingdom 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.0 Canada 3.0 3.6 4.4 3.0 United States Countries 1.8 1.3 1.9 0.5 Eurozone 4.4 4.3 5.8 1.3 Latin America 6.4 6.6 7.4 6.4 Asia/NIC/Emerging * 3.1 3.0 3.8 2.4 World Real Growth (% CH) 2006 2005 2004 2003 Indicator Iraq, 1 MMT World Rice Prices 2000 2001 2002 8/2003 1/2004 8/2004 1/2005 8/2005 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Thai, FOB Bangkok U.S., FAS Gulf Ports FOB, Vietnam $/Metric To