Impact of regional climate change on.docVIP

Impact of regional climate change on Vol 438|17 November 2005|doi:10.1038/nature04188 REVIEWS Impact of regional climate change on human health Jonathan A. Patz1,2, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum3, Tracey Holloway1 Jonathan A. Foley1 The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate–health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Nin.o/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events. G G lobal average temperatures are projected to increase between 1.4 and 5.8 8C by the end of this century1; an associated rise in sea level is also expected. The number of people at risk from flooding by coastal stor