usagricultureintheclimatechangesqueeze.docVIP

US Agriculture in the climate change squeeze: Part 1: Sectoral Sensitivity and Vulnerability Bruce A. McCarl Regents Professor of Agricultural Economics Texas AM University Report to National Environmental Trust August 31, 2006 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 5 2 Purpose of document 6 3 Evidence for climate change and projections 7 4 Why might US agriculture be affected – vulnerability 10 4.1 Climate change drivers 11 4.2 Agricultural sensitivity responses 12 5 Setting up for quantitative vulnerability analysis 15 5.1 Basic analytical approach 16 5.2 Climate Change Scenarios Employed 17 6 Data on Climate Change and Production 19 6.1 Crop yields 19 6.2 Crop input use 27 6.3 Crop Water demand and irrigation water use 27 6.4 Livestock yields 27 6.5 Livestock feed and other input use 28 6.6 Water 29 6.7 Grass on grazing land and AUMS supply 30 6.8 Pests and Pesticide Usage 31 6.9 World agriculture 32 7 Economic Methodology 33 7.1 Market assumptions 33 7.2 Adaptation assumptions 33 8 Results 34 8.1 Overall Economics 34 8.2 Highlighting 2030 with adaptation 37 8.2.1 Welfare 37 Producer/Consumer Distributional Effects 37 Regional Distribution Results 38 8.2.2 National Production, Prices and Trade 39 Index Numbers for Production, Prices and Trade 39 Commodity Production, and Prices 40 Acreage and Herd Size 42 Total land-use 44 8.2.3 Regional production 44 8.2.4 Environmental Interactions 46 9 Why Such Low Vulnerability 47 10 Caveats on the analysis 48 11 What have we missed -- other vulnerabilities 50 11.1 Other Vulnerabilities that have been analyzed 50 11.1.1 Extreme Events -- Climate Change and El Nino 50 11.1.2 Environmental protection 51 11.1.3 Variability of crop yields and climate 52 11.1.4 Developing Country Production 53 11.2 Open questions 54 11.2.1 Changes in precipitation and storm patterns 54 11.2.2 Extreme events 54 11.2.3 Aquaculture and Ocean Ranching 55 11.2.4 Changes in Transport 56 11.2.5 Adaptation and Policy 56 11.2.6 Future of Agriculture