verticalandhorizontalintegrationintheugandanfishsupply.docVIP

Vertical and Horizontal Integration in the Ugandan Fish Supply Chain: Measuring for Feedback Effects to Fishermen Daniel V. Gordona) and Ssebisubi Mauriceb) May, 2012 a) Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada dgordon@ucalgary.ca b) Aquaculture Management Consultants Ltd. Kampala, Uganda mauriceisnot@ Abstract The purpose of this article is to report the results of a statistical investigation of links in the fish supply chain in Uganda. We are particularly interested in the extent of ex-vessel prices impacting links downstream in the fish supply chain. We test for vertical and horizontal co-integration for five important fish species using the Johansen vector error correction model. We search for price leadership using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure to test for Granger causality.?And ARIMA models are used to forecast ex-vessel prices. Our results show that ex-vessel prices are only weakly related to downstream markets. Short Title: Ex-vessel Price Determination in Uganda Keywords Fish Supply Chain, Vertical and Horizontal Integration, Causality JEL Classification Q22 · Q28 Table of contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Uganda Fisheries 5 3. Price Data 9 4. Econometric Models and Results 16 5. Summary and Discussion 27 References 30  Introduction Uganda is a landlocked country yet produces substantial quantities of both capture and farmed fish. Capture harvest is based on fresh water lakes, particularly Lake Victoria, abundant in the country and the Nile River. Capture harvest levels have varied widely from just over 200,000 tonnes in 1997 to reach a maximum of twice this level in 2004 falling again to about 350,000 tonnes in 2009 (FAO-Fishstat 2009). Farmed fish is a relatively new industry in Uganda but has grown rapidly in the last ten years and now produces about 50,000 tonnes of fish, mostly Catfish and Tilapia, per annum (Isyagi, 2007). Capture fish harves