Market Size_Cements tanker_021221_OK.pptVIP

STK This proposal is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. * For STK Internal Review Only This proposal is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. The growth of cements and bulk percentage in china (from 2001-2007) Estimation of total cements tankers 2002 to 2007 Beijing Heavy estimates of the future market share Key factor adjustment Market share estimates for the JV 2003 to 2007 Market size estimates for the JV 2003 to 2007 Scenario I: if the market will go as the expectation of the governments, the total cements product volume and bulk percentage will reach about 650 million tons and 31% till 2005 Scenario II: if the market go ahead by itself, the cements product volume and bulk percentage will reach 700 million tons and 35-45% till 2005 Key assumptions Total market size will mainly comprise new-added ones and the demand of replacement The replacement rates for 4-year old and 5-year old vehicles will be about 1/3 and 2/3 Capacity of the current mainstream cement tanker is around 15 tons per vehicle, which could increase to 20 tons per vehicle in 2004 and 2007 Regulation, competition and export are the key factors affecting the future market and no other significant factors Industrial experts’ view and forecast are reliable JV’s market share can reach between 3-5% in 2003 and 10-18% in 2006 JV market size is based on the total market size estimates Cements tankers: Derivation and key assumptions 2.1 Market potentials over next 5 years Cement tankers (Scenario I): Total market size 2.1 Market potentials over next 5 years Market size based on the government plan Unit: vehicle CAGR: about 5% Key Findings Total bulk cements will reach about 203 million tons, or 31% of the total cements production volume The market size of cements tankers will increase from about 2140 vehicles in 200