FINANCIAL REPRESSION AND CAPITAL INFLOW.pptVIP

FINANCIAL REPRESSION AND CAPITAL INFLOW Presented by: 阳 桦 Yang Hua 西方经济学 INTRODUCTION The effect of foreign debt accumulate and FDI on saving and investment under financial depression. Five-equation macroeconomic model Comparison Influence of Financial Repression to Saving and invest Financial Repression Growth Rate Leftward shift of saving function National saving Government and government-guaranteed foreign debt Expected tax rate National Saving Ratio [ Based on Ricadian Equivalence}] High Foreign debt Government stimulate export devaluation on real exchange rate real return on asset higher in abroad than in domestic capital out flow [Under invoicing export and ] 在这种情况下,外债积累不仅没有能够减少投资和提高储蓄,反而导致了储蓄线的左移,因此恶化了经常项目,最终导致实际利率到达了天文数字的高度. 对投资的影响:政府和政府担保的外债也可能会对投资产生负面影响,因为企业会预期政府未来很可能提高税收.(the deleterious effects of the foreign debt on investment in Latin America ) DEPYt-1 :Last year’s stock of government plus government-guaranteed credit converted into domestic currency and divided by last year’s GNP. 1. DEPY 会使得sf0移向sf1,从而导致一个更高的国内利率,储蓄线上移. 2.DEPY的利率效应(financial or rate effect)与财政效应(fiscal effective)对储蓄产生相反的作用. 3.考虑到DEPY这种可能对储蓄的非线形相关关系,我们把它表示成二次方程的形式以解释其对利率的影响: Cumulating the current account deficit over time-----Another measure of a country’s foreign indebtedness Current deficit= Measured deficit – unrequited transfer FLYt-1 is last year’s stock of cumulated net foreign liabilities converted into domestic currency and divided by last year’s GNP. A reduced-form equation for R 1. The demand for foreign saving equals the saving-investment gap. And the gap depends on all the determinants of national saving and domestic investment. An increase in r decreases by deterring domestic investment 2. The supply of foreign of foreign saving is determined by the work r