millerrothsteinrouse.pptVIP

Validating Self-Reported Education: Results of a Pilot Study Jesse Rothstein Cecilia Rouse Ashley Miller How many high school graduates are there? Current Population Survey Gives “status completion” rate:# of 25-year-old graduates / 25-year-old population Common Core of Data Gives “school-based completion rate”:# of graduates in year t / # of 9th graders in t-3. CPS estimates much higher than CCD estimates 2000/2 cohorts: 84% CPS vs. 70% CCD CPS vs. CCD-based graduation rates Two easy issues HS diploma attainment rises with age in CPS Delayed completion? Adult education / GEDs? Misreporting? “9th grade bulge” CCD estimates usually use 9th grade enrollment as denominator Many students are held back in 9th grade 9th grade enrollment consistently about 7-10% higher than 8th grade enrollment through 1990s These reduce the problem, but don’t eliminate it. CPS vs. CCD-based graduation rates Not very sensitive to definitions CCD-based estimates all tend to yield similar answers. Mishel and Roy (2006): Get same answers with CPS, Census, NELS, NLSY. Alternative graduation rates, existing data Not very sensitive to definitions CCD-based estimates all tend to yield similar answers. Mishel and Roy (2006): Get same answers with CPS, Census, NELS, NLSY. Except! ? Some evidence that GEDs can account for a lot of the discrepancy (Heckman and LaFontaine 2007) Alternative graduation rates, existing data Potential explanations Attainment increase with age is poorly understood Proxy responses in CPS may overstate graduation Respondents may overstate own graduation “Some college” may not have graduated HS Regular diplomas vs. GEDs, certificates of attendance, adult ed., etc. Public vs. private schools Immigrants/emigrants since HS Grade retention Divergent definitions in CCD CPS excludes armed forces, prisoners Poor coverage in CPS Potential explanations that we will address Attainment increase with age is poorly understood Proxy responses in CPS may overstate gradua