ABriefOverviewofNCEPShort-RangeEnsembleForecast(SREF)System.ppt

A Brief Overview of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System The current SREF configuration Entire North America domain (covering U.S., Canada, Mexico, Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic) 21 members (with 4 regional models) 35-45km depending on models Run 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21z) 3hrly output to 87hr for each cycle 4 AWIPS output domains: NorthAmerican (221), CONUS (212), Alaska (216) and Eastern Pacific/Hawaii (243) SREF Data AWIPS (mean, prob and spgt in grid212, need to be in grid221) NOMADS (same as above plus individual members, need to add Bufr and GEMPAK sounding output?) Public ftp site (same as AWIPS plus individual members of selected fields, Bufr and GEMPAK sounding data will soon be added!) NCEP CCS (NCEP internal) 2-year archive of all grib outputs (NCEP internal). Do we need to archive it at NCDC for public? Personal help (temporally and limited efforts, such as data to RFC and CAPS Spring Pr. Exp.) SREF Products Development web (general): /mmb/SREF/SREF.html Operational web (general): /pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Aviation products web (by Binbin Zhou): linked at the SREF DEV web SPC convection (by David Bright): /exper/sref/ HPC QPF: /wwd/impactgraphics/ WFO (by Rich Gramm): / Meteograms (by Geoff Manikin): /mmb/srefmeteograms/sref.html Cyclone tracks (by Tim Marchok): /gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ Ensemble variance to drive DTRA dispersion model: /mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/web/html/variance.html Comparison to Single Hi-Res Model (SREF21 mean vs. 12km NAM) Ensemble Mean Performance (SREF vs. GEFS) However, we are working on the direction of combining all pieces of information together to provide users a best possible forecast. Specifically: Combining SREF with hi-res single runs (such as NAM, GFS, HRW) Combining SREF with GEFS SREF21 Spread in Talagrand Distribution Large variance in precipitation forecast within the SREF Reliability of SREF21-based Probabilistic Forecasts Recent Activities and plans SREF-FALL 2007 Implementation Packag