赫伯特西蒙：决策理论.pptVIP

Decision-Making  The Essence of the Manager’s Job I The Decision-Making Process Decision Making a choice from two or more alternatives. The Decision-Making Process Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. Implementing the selected alternative. Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness. Step 1: Identifying the Problem Problem A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Characteristics of Problems A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem. Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm) Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria Decision criteria are not of equal importance: Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process. Criteria and Weights for  Computer Replacement Decision Criterion Weight Memory and Storage 10 Battery life 8 Carrying Weight 6 Warranty 4 Display Quality 3 Criteria and Weights for  Franchise Decision Criterion Weight Start-up costs 10 Franchisor support 8 Financial qualification 6 Open geographical locations 4 Franchisor history 3 Step 4: Developing Alternatives Identifying viable alternatives