天然气输差预测评估方法详解.doc

摘要 随着天然气用量的增加 ,市场供需双方对计量准确度的要求越来越高 ,目前国内天然气市场以供方计量为准 ,由于诸多因素的影响 ,供需双方交接时的误差较大。针对输气系统的输差问题 ,本文从误差理论出发 ,以重庆地区天然气输差为研究对象 ,分析了产生输差问题的原因，,建立了长期天然气输差和短期天然气输差预测模型。根据天然气输差的特点，以及影响天然气输差的因素，运用灰色理论，构造了基于灰色理论的长期天然气输差预测模型；运用时间序列分解法，构造了基于时间序列分解的天然气输差预测模型。并对重庆地区巴山仪器、重庆车管所、庆铃汽车厂、西南药业公司、重庆锅炉厂、重庆大学等单位作为研究对象，进行了长期天然气输差预测，对重庆大学、巴山仪器等单位进行了短期天然气输差预测，并对预测结果进行了残差检验。并就具体实施提出了建议Abstract With the increase in natural gas consumption, supply and demand in the market both on measurement accuracy of the increasing demands, the current domestic gas market to supply-side measures prevail, because many factors, both supply and demand at the turn of the larger error. Against gas transmission system worse, this error from theory to the area of Chongqing natural gas transmission error for the study. By analyzing the loser of the reasons for the poor, and establish a long-term natural gas transmission error and the short-term natural gas transmission error prediction model. According to the natural gas transmission error characteristics, and impact on natural gas transmission error factors, the gray theory, Gray tectonic theory based on the long-term natural gas transmission error prediction model; use time series decomposition, Based on the structure of the time series decomposition of natural gas transmission error prediction model. Chongqing also Bashan apparatus, Chongqing Vehicle Administration Office, Qingling Automobile Plant, Southwest Pharmaceutical Company, Chongqing boiler plant Chongqing University, and other units as a research object for a long time natural gas transmission error forecast of Chongqing University, Prasarn equipment, and other units of the short-term natural gas transmission error prediction, prediction of residual test. And the implementation of specific recommendations for improving the efficiency of the Chongqing gas companies to reduce losses and the cost of great value. Keywords: Gas loses difference gray theory the time series breaks up spoils the bad