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2017-04-05 发布于江苏
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A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis.pdf

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A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis

ARTICLE IN PRESS0951-8320/$ - see front m doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.0 Corresponding auth fax: +3902 23 99 4067. E-mail address: paoReliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 823–834 /locate/ressA Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation P. Truccoa,, E. Cagnoa, F. Ruggerib, O. Grandea aDepartment of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering—Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, I-20133 Milano, Italy bCNR IMATI, via E.Bassini, 15, I-20133 Milano, Italy Received 26 September 2006; received in revised form 19 March 2007; accepted 21 March 2007 Available online 1 April 2007Abstract The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational an