20160602Therisksofcentralbanks’radicaltreatments.docxVIP

世界抵达货币政策的极限了吗？The risks of central banks’ radical treatmentsHave we reached the limits of monetary policy? No. The central banks’ medicine cabinet is still full. Yet using the old treatments more aggressively or using altogether new treatments creates political, financial and economic risks. Worse, such action cannot solve some of the bigger difficulties the high-income economies confront【vt.面对；遭遇；比较】. In an ideal world, therefore, monetary policy, should not remain “the only game in town”, as the title of a book by the economist and investment manager Mohamed El-Erian suggests it now is. Unfortunately, we do not live in an ideal world. In the real world, central banks must remain our doctors of choice.我们已到达货币政策的极限了吗？没有。中央银行的药箱仍是满满的。不过，更激进地使用旧疗法，或者使用全新疗法，都会产生政治、金融和经济风险。更糟糕的是，这么做无法解决高收入经济体面对的一些更大的难题。因此，在理想世界中，货币政策不应继续是“唯一的选择”（经济学家、投资经理穆罕默德?埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)所著《唯一的选择》(The Only Game in Town)的书名暗示，当前情形恰恰如此）。遗憾的是，我们并非生活在理想的世界里。在现实世界中，央行必须继续充当我们的首选医生。Central banks have duly【adv. 适当地；充分地；按时地】 employed more radical treatments than ever before. All the leading central banks of advanced economies have set short-term intervention【n. 介入；调停；妨碍】rates close to zero. The Bank of Japan has applied rates this low since 1995. The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have used ultra-low rates since early 2009. By 2013, the European Central Bank followed suit — albeit【conj. 虽然；即使】too slowly.各国央行已正确地采取了比以往任何时候都要激进的疗法。主要发达经济体的央行都把短期干预利率设置为接近零的水平。自1995年以来，日本央行(BoJ)一直把利率维持在这么低的水平。自2009年初以来，美联储(Fed)和英国央行(BoE)一直采取超低利率政策。到2013年，欧洲央行(ECB)也开始跟进，尽管动作太晚了。These central banks have also substantially【adv. 实质上；大体上；充分地】expanded their balance sheets through quantitative【adj. 定量的；量的】easing or, in the case of the Bank of Japan, “quantitative and qualitative easing” (which includes lengthening of the maturity of the assets it buys). Like the Fed, the Bank of England has stopped purchasing assets. But its balance sheet is bigger, relative to UK gross domestic product, than throughout its long hi