钢铁企业安全管理的系统动力学研究 大学论文.doc

内蒙古科技大学本科生毕业论文 题 目：钢铁企业安全管理的 系统动力学研究 学生姓名：慕龙山 学 号：1172135130 专 业：安全工程 班 级：安全11-1班 指导教师：刘业娇 摘要 钢铁企业是中国发展的命脉之一，钢铁企业中存在着各种各样的安全隐患。本文采用系统动力学的方法把钢铁企业安全管理系统划分为六个子系统，对各级影响因素进一步分析和研究；运用Vensim软件对钢铁企业安全管理中存在的人的因素、机器因素、原料因素、环境因素、经济利益、法制监管六大因素进行模拟分析，对于各个二级因素再次建立相应的模型。通过以上模型的建立，建立出相应的钢铁企业安全管理指标体系，并使用层次分析法确定了各影响因素的权重，这些因素权重的确定对于后续的安全评价部分起到了十分重要的作用。然后采用模糊数学的方法确定钢铁企业安全管理影响因素的相对隶属度，得出钢铁企业危险等级为“一般”。文章的最后对于钢铁企业中存在的安全问题做出了相应的对策、措施和建议。 关键词：钢铁企业；安全管理；系统动力学；层次分析法；模糊数学 Abstract Chinese iron and steel enterprises are the lifeblood of the development of iron and steel enterprises there are a variety of security risks. In this paper, the system dynamics method to iron and steel enterprise security management system is divided into six subsystems, factors affecting all levels to further analysis and research; use Vensim steel enterprise security management software that exist in the human factor, machine factors, material factors, Environmental factors, economic interests, legal regulators are simulated and analyzed six factors, for each two factors again to establish the appropriate model. Through the establishment of the above model, iron and steel enterprises to establish the corresponding safety management index system, and determine the weight of each factors weight using the analytic hierarchy process, these factors determining the weights for the subsequent safety evaluation component played a very important role. Then using fuzzy math to determine the relative membership degree steel enterprise security management factors, drawn steel companies risk rating for general. The last article of the security issues in the presence of iron and steel enterprises to make the corresponding countermeasures, measures and recommendations. Keywords： iron and steel enterprises; safety management; system dynamics; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy mathematics 目录 摘要 I Abstract II 目录