climate change impacts on global agriculture water deficit -cai ximing-2013.pdf

? 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Climate Change Impacts on Global Agricultural Water Deficit Xiao Zhang and Ximing Cai (Corresponding author) Ven Te Chow Hydrosystems Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 Tel: (217) 333 4935; Email: xmcai@illinois.edu Key words Climate change, agriculture, water, irrigation This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/grl.50279 A cc ep te d A rti cl e ? 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Abstract This paper assesses the change in crop water deficits (the difference between crop evapotranspiration and precipitation that is effective for crop growth) of 26 crops (including rainfed and irrigated) under current (1961-1990) and projected climates (2070-2099). We found that despite the universally rising mean temperature, crop water deficits are likely to decline slightly at the global scale, although changes vary by region. While the increasing precipitation and changing intra-annual precipitation distribution in many areas can lead to more effective rainfall for crop growth, the declining diurnal temperature range (DTR) will play a key role in offsetting the warming effect at the global scale. Regionally, Africa and China are likely to benefit from lower water requirements, but the impacts on other regions, including Europe, India, South America and the United States, are subject to the land use types (rainfed or irrigated) and the uncertainty involved in the assessment approaches. Index terms 1630, 1807, 1842 Introduction Water requirements and availability are critical factors that determine the extent of climate change impa