- 1、本文档共11页,可阅读全部内容。
- 2、原创力文档(book118)网站文档一经付费(服务费),不意味着购买了该文档的版权,仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用,不得用于商业用途,未经授权,严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等,侵权必究。
- 3、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传,本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺!文档内容仅供研究参考,付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费,意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险,本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务;查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档,您可以点击 这里二次下载。
- 4、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等,请点击“版权申诉”(推荐),也可以打举报电话:400-050-0827(电话支持时间:9:00-18:30)。
查看更多
Economic analysis of drought risk An application for irrigated agriculture in Spain
E
i
M
a
b
a
A
R
A
A
K
D
I
E
M
1
i
t
a
m
(
m
t
T
r
t
m
t
t
o
g
n
T
0
dAgricultural Water Management 98 (2011) 823–833
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Agricultural Water Management
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate /agwat
conomic analysis of drought risk: An application for irrigated agriculture
n Spain
arina Gil a, Alberto Garridoa,?, Almudena Gómez-Ramosb
Research Centre for the Managament of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM), Technical University of Madrid, Spain
University of Valladolid, Spain
r t i c l e i n f o
rticle history:
eceived 10 February 2010
ccepted 16 December 2010
vailable online 3 February 2011
eywords:
rought
rrigation
a b s t r a c t
This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to
irrigatedagriculture. First, aneconometricmodel isused toexplain thevariation in theproductionvalueof
irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface
storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time
variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces
in termsof irrigated agriculture. In the secondpart, the fittedmodels are used for the economic evaluation
of drought risk. Inflow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform
ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model’s error and theconomic risk
onte Carlo simulation probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs’ storage variations are used to generate Monte
Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season.
The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which
depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water inflow to reservoirs.
The potential
您可能关注的文档
- Contact angle hysteresis of cylindrical drops on chemically heterogeneous striped surfaces.pdf
- Contactless 360° absolute angular CMOS microsystem based on vertical Hall sensors.pdf
- Contents Title ”Operator Theory Arising from Systems Engineering”.pdf
- Context Sensitive Anomaly Monitoring of Process Control Flow to Detect Mimicry £ Attacks a.pdf
- Context Shadow A Person-Centric Infrastructure for Context Aware Computing.pdf
- Context-Sensitive Referencing for Ontology Mapping Disambiguation.pdf
- Context-Sensitive Binding by the Laminar Circuits of V1 and V2 Unified Model Perceptual Gro.pdf
- Context-Sensitive Spoken Dialogue Processing with the DOP Model.pdf
- Continuity of the Complex Monge-Ampere Operator on Compact Kahler Manifolds.pdf
- Continuum Field Model of Street Canyon Theoretical Description Part I.pdf
文档评论(0)