基于隐马尔可夫模型的中小企业动态客户关系管理 毕业设计.doc

摘 要 中小企业是我国经济增长的主要驱动力和技术创新的生力军，其健康成长对国民经济快速稳步发展有着重要意义。根据中小企业的特点，开展客户关系管理是提高中小企业生命力的重要措施。 本文基于评估客户价值角度研究中小企业客户关系管理，首先定性分析了中小企业客户关系管理现状及存在的问题，譬如认识不足，客户关系管理能力不强等问题；其次，针对中小企业的特点引入隐马尔可夫模型构建了适用于中小企业的动态客户关系管理模型；第三，选用M企业作为案例来进行实例研究，分析了该企业客户关系管理实施成效不佳的原因，针对该企业的具体情况，选定了相应状态衡量向量，根据该企业的客户交易行为以及客户对企业市场行为的响应数据，利用MATLAB程序计算了客户购买概率和客户状态转移矩阵，并确定隐含状态序列。其结果是具有随机、普通和依赖的3种客户状态的模型较合适，通过对这三种状态转移概率的计算可知，M企业的营销措施应重点放在提升普通型客户到依赖型转移率上；由某一状态客户购买概率计算表明，客户与企业的关系越紧密，购买意愿越大；具有代表性的四种隐含客户关系状态序列分别为：徘徊状态、发展状态、稳定状态和危机状态序列，最后对上述各状态序列下的客户提出了相应的营销策略。 本文为中小企业客户关系管理研究提供一种定量研究方法，有助于指导中小企业开发、维护、发展客户关系，进而在一定程度上延长中小企业的经营寿命具有较大的现实意义。Abstract Small and medium enterprises are the main driving forces of economic growth and the major pioneers of technology innovation in China. Their healthy growth is of great significance for the stable development of the national economy. According to the characteristics of small and medium enterprises, developing customer relationship management is an important measure to strengthen the vitality of small and medium enterprises. This paper, it based on customer relationship management of small and medium enterprises from the perspective of customer’s value, first analyzes the situation and problems of customer relationship management in small and medium enterprises. Additionally, this paper introduces Hidden Markov Model to construct dynamic customer relationship management model adapted to small and medium enterprise according to their features. Last but not least, to verify the above mentioned model, the paper chooses M company as a case for concrete research and analyzes the unsatisfactory effect of customer relationship management. Corresponding state measurement of vector is chosen based on the concrete condition of this enterprise. MATLAB program is applied to calculate the purchase probability of customer and the order of customer status. The hidden state is also confirmed. The result is that the model of random, common and dependant observation state are more appropriate.