2008-Real-time data-based risk assessment for hazard installations storing flammable gas.pdf

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2008-Real-time data-based risk assessment for hazard installations storing flammable gas.pdf

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2008-Real-time data-based risk assessment for hazard installations storing flammable gas

Real-Time Data-Based Risk Assessment for Hazard Installations Storing Flammable Gas Zhou Jianfeng,a Chen Guohua,a and Chen Qingguangb aInstitute of Safety Science and Engineering, College of Industrial Equipment and Control Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China; mmghchen@ (for correspondence) bGuangdong Institute of Safety Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510620, China Published online 18 January 2008 in Wiley InterScience (). DOI 10.1002/prs.10247 Large quantities of dangerous substances, especially explosive or flammable gases, are processed or stored in hazard installations. A risk-based warning/early- warning system for major hazard installations is very important for the prevention of major accidents. The real-time data-based risk and the risk factors are ana- lyzed in this article, and a fuzzy logic based real-time risk assessment method is proposed. On the basis of fuzzy logic theory, the likelihood of an accident occur- rence and the consequence of the accident can be assessed, and the risk value or risk level can be eval- uated by utilizing a risk matrix. The method takes advantage of the real-time data acquired from the safety monitoring system so that the change in the risk can be determined as the accident develops. The risk assessment simulation of a vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accident caused by gas leaked from an liquefied petroleum gas tank is performed. It is shown that the risk of a VCE accident varies with the change of the monitored data. 2008 American Institute of Chemi- cal Engineers Process Saf Prog 27: 205–211, 2008 Keywords: hazard installation; real-time risk; fuzzy assessment INTRODUCTION Large quantities of dangerous substances, espe- cially explosive or flammable gases (including lique- fied gas), are processed or stored in hazard installa- tions. If the substance accidentally leaks out, it will have a strong impact on the surrounding area. To improve the safety management of hazard installations a