Comparison of uncertainty in different emission trading schemes.pdf

Comparison of Uncertainty in Different Emission Trading Schemes September 25, 2004 Suvi Monni
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  Background
EU CO2 emission trading 2005-2007 – aim: to give one cost effective measure to reduce ghg emissions in the EU in order to achieve the Kyoto target – rules set in Directive 2003/87/EC and Guidelines for Monitoring – CO2 from combustion and some raw materials in large installations (plants 20 MWth, ) – energy, pulp and paper, metal and mineral industry and oil refineries (excluding e.g. chemical industry) – 13 000 plants in the EU-25 area (plant-level emission data needed) – 2000 Tg CO2 – share of CO2 emissions included in trading varies from 30% to nearly 100% in different member states
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  Background
EU emission trading 2008-2012 (second phase) – rules will be decided in 2006 – may be extended to cover other gases and/or sources
Kyoto emission trading 2008-2012 – rules set in the Marrakesh accords – begins, if the Protocol enters into force – emissions traded between parties – parties can enable companies to trade
Uncertainty estimates required under the Kyoto Protocol
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  Methods
Aim: to estimate differences in uncertainty of different ETS
Uncertainty in different ETS estimated based on uncertainties in GHG inventories – EU-15 and EU-25 concerned – method does not give the real uncertainty in emission trading, because of – uncertainties in point sources (EU ETS) different from uncertainty in inventories – in inventory, random errors cancel each other – systematic errors cumulate – uncertainty in changes of emissions – good for comparison of different schemes
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  Cases
EU CO2 emission trading scheme for EU-15
EU CO2 emission trading scheme for EU-25
Hypothetical EU CO2 emission trading scheme extended to cover CH4 N2O f