什么是不确定.docVIP

What is uncertainty? 什么是不确定度? I used to be uncertain - now I#m not so sure. In ordinary use the word #uncertainty# does not inspire confidence. However, when used in a technical sense as in #measurement uncertainty# or #uncertainty of a test result# it carries a specific meaning. It is a parameter, associated with the result of a measurement (eg a calibration or test) that defines the range of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measured quantity. When uncertainty is evaluated and reported in a specified way it indicates the level of confidence that the value actually lies within the range defined by the uncertainty interval. 从技术角度讲，不确定度是指测量的不确定性或者具有特殊含义的检测结果的不确定性。它是一个与测量结果相联系（比如校验或者检测）的参数，定义了所得值的范围，可能跟检测数量有关。当评定不确定度并以特定方式给出报告时，它即指落在规定的不确定区间范围内的数值的置信水平。 How does it arise? 不确定度的产生原因? Any measurement is subject to imperfections; some of these are due to random effects, such as short-term fluctuations in temperature, humidity and air-pressure or variability in the performance of the measurer. Repeated measurements will show variation because of these random effects. Other imperfections are due to the practical limits to which correction can be made for systematic effects, such as offset of a measuring instrument, drift in its characteristics between calibrations, personal bias in reading an analogue scale or the uncertainty of the value of a reference standard. 任何测量都是非理想性的，部分是因为温度、湿度和气压或者测量者的操作变动性等因素在短期内的波动等这些随机效应。有了这些随机效应的影响，重复测量就可以显示出数值的变化。其它非理想性因素是由于对系统效应的修正产生的实际限制，比如测量仪器的误差，两次校验之间的性质偏移，个人读取量数的偏差或者参考标准值的不确定性。 Why is it important? 不确定度之所以重要的原因? The uncertainty is a quantitative indication of the quality of the result. It gives an answer to the question, how well does the result represent the value of the quantity being measured?不确定度是结果质量的定量性指标，它回答了以下问题，即结果如何恰当地代表测量的量值？It allows users of the result to assess its reliability, for example for the purposes of companson of results from different sources or with reference values. Confidence in the com