Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices.pdf

insight review articles NATURE | VOL 418 | 8 AUGUST 2002 | /nature 671 T he benefits of agriculture have been immense. Before the dawn of agriculture, the hunter–gatherer lifestyle supported about 4 million people globally 1 . Modern agriculture now feeds 6,000 million people. Global cereal production has doubled in the past 40 years (Fig. 1a), mainly from the increased yields resulting from greater inputs of fertilizer, water and pesticides, new crop strains, and other technologies of the ‘Green Revolution’ 2–4 . This has increased the global per capita food supply 2 , reducing hunger, improving nutrition (and thus the ability of people to better reach their mental and physical potential) and sparing natural ecosystems from conversion to agriculture 5 . By 2050, global population is projected to be 50% larger than at present and global grain demand is projected to double 6–8 . This doubling will result from a projected 2.4-fold increase in per capita real income and from dietary shifts towards a higher proportion of meat (much of it grain- fed) associated with higher income. Further increases in agricultural output are essential for global political and social stability and equity. Doubling food production again, and sustaining food production at this level, are major challenges 8–11 . Doing so in ways that do not compromise environmental integrity 4,12,13 and public health 14,15 is a greater challenge still. We focus here on scientific and policy challenges that must be met to sustain and increase the net societal benefits of intensive agricultural production. Sustainability and net benefits Agricultural practices determine the level of food production and, to a great extent, the state of the global environment. Agriculturalists are the chief managers of terrestrial ‘useable’ lands, which we broadly define as all land that is not desert, tundra, rock or boreal. About half of global usable land is already in pastoral or intensive agricul- ture 4 . In additi