Describing disability through individual-level mixture models for multivariate binary data.pdf

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Describing disability through individual-level mixture models for multivariate binary data.pdf

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Describing disability through individual-level mixture models for multivariate binary data

a r X i v : 0 7 1 2 .2 1 2 4 v 1 [ s t a t .A P ] 1 3 D e c 2 0 0 7 The Annals of Applied Statistics 2007, Vol. 1, No. 2, 502–537 DOI: 10.1214/07-AOAS126 c? Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2007 DESCRIBING DISABILITY THROUGH INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL MIXTURE MODELS FOR MULTIVARIATE BINARY DATA1 By Elena A. Erosheva, Stephen E. Fienberg and Cyrille Joutard University of Washington, Carnegie Mellon University and Universite? Toulouse 1 Data on functional disability are of widespread policy interest in the United States, especially with respect to planning for Medi- care and Social Security for a growing population of elderly adults. We consider an extract of functional disability data from the Na- tional Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) and attempt to develop dis- ability profiles using variations of the Grade of Membership (GoM) model. We first describe GoM as an individual-level mixture model that allows individuals to have partial membership in several mix- ture components simultaneously. We then prove the equivalence be- tween individual-level and population-level mixture models, and use this property to develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian estimation of the model. We use our approach to analyze functional disability data from the NLTCS. 1. Introduction. 1.1. Background. Data on functional disability are of widespread policy interest in the United States, especially with respect to planning Medicare and Social Security spending for a growing population of elderly adults. The concept of functional disability reflects difficulties in performing activities that are considered normal for everyday living. These activities are usually divided into two types, namely, basic and instrumental activities of daily Received February 2007; revised June 2007. 1Supported in part by NIH Grant R01 AG023141-01 to Carnegie Mellon University, and by the Center of Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, under a Seed Grant to Elena A. Erosheva