Increasing stroke incidence and prevalence of risk factors in a low-income Chinese population.pdf
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Increasing stroke incidence and prevalence of risk factors in a low-income Chinese population
Jinghua Wang, PhD
Zhongping An, MD
Bin Li, MD
Li Yang, MD
Jun Tu, BS
Hongfei Gu, MD
Changqing Zhan, BS
Bin Liu, MD
Ta-Chen Su, MD, PhD
Xianjia Ning, PhD
Correspondence to
Dr. Ning:
xjn0906@
Editorial, page 337
Increasing stroke incidence and prevalence
of risk factors in a low-income
Chinese population
ABSTRACT
Objective: We investigated secular trends in incidence of first-ever stroke and the prevalence of
stroke risk factors within the same population in rural China.
Methods: In 1985, 15,438 residents from a township of Tianjin, China, were recruited to the
Tianjin Brain Study, a population-based stroke surveillance study. Stroke events and all deaths
were registered annually. Because imaging technology was first available in 1992, we analyzed
the incidence of first-ever stroke over 3 study periods—1992–1998, 1999–2005, and 2006–
2012—from 1992 to 2012. Risk factor surveys were conducted in 1991 and 2011.
Results: The age-standardized incidence of first-ever stroke per 100,000 person-years increased
rapidly from 124.5 in 1992–1998 to 190.0 in 1999–2005 and to 318.2 in 2006–2012; inci-
dence increased annually by 6.5% overall and by 12% among men aged 45–64 years (p, 0.05).
From 1992 to 2012, the age at first-ever stroke in men was earlier by 3.3 years overall, but a
similar trend was not observed in women. Concurrently, the prevalence of high fasting glucose
and alcohol consumption increased significantly in both men and women, especially in men aged
,45 years; the prevalence of obesity and high fasting glucose increased by 8.8-fold and 11-fold,
respectively, from 1992 to 2012.
Conclusions: The incidence of stroke in rural China increased rapidly, particularly among middle-
aged adults, along with a concurrent increase in risk factor prevalence. These findings suggest
that without controlling these risk factors, stroke incidence will continue to increase over future
decades in China. Neurology? 2015;84:374–381
GLOSSARY
APC 5 annual percentage of change; BMI 5 body
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