Discrete and Continuous Simulation - University at ….pptVIP

Discrete and Continuous Simulation Marcio Carvalho Luis Luna What is it all about? Numerical simulation approach Level of Aggregation Policies versus Decisions Aggregate versus Individuals Aggregate Dynamics versus Problem solving Difficulty of the formulation Nature of the system/problem Nature of the question Nature of preferred lenses Basic concepts Static or dynamic models Stochastic, deterministic or chaotic models Discrete or continuous change/models Aggregates or Individuals 1. Static or Dynamic models Dynamic: State variables change over time (System Dynamics, Discrete Event, Agent-Based, Econometrics?) Static: Snapshot at a single point in time (Monte Carlo simulation, optimization models, etc.) 2. Deterministic, Stochastic or Chaotic Deterministic model is one whose behavior is entire predictable. The system is perfectly understood, then it is possible to predict precisely what will happen. Stochastic model is one whose behavior cannot be entirely predicted. Chaotic model is a deterministic model with a behavior that cannot be entirely predicted 3. Discrete or Continuous models Discrete model: the state variables change only at a countable number of points in time. These points in time are the ones at which the event occurs/change in state. Continuous: the state variables change in a continuous way, and not abruptly from one state to another (infinite number of states). 3. Discrete or Continuous models Continuous model: Bank account 3. Discrete and Continuous models Discrete model: Bank Account 4. Aggregate and Individual models Aggregate model: we look for a more distant position. Modeler is more distant. Policy model. This view tends to be more deterministic. Individual model: modeler is taking a closer look of the individual decisions. This view tends to be more stochastic. The “Soup” of models Waiting in line Waiting in line 1B Busy clerk Waiting in line (Stella version) Mortgages (ARENA model) Time handling 2 approaches: Time-slicing: move forward in