城市基础设施建设国际经验-WilsonCenter.ppt

Automotive News China ConferenceNovember 15-18, 2006, Beijing Urban Transport Challenge and Its Implications to the Automobile Manufacturing Industry Zhi Liu World Bank China’s auto industrial development is a major economic success … China has succeeded in developing a world class automotive industry within 10 years. The development of automotive industry drives national economic growth. The use of automobiles enhances mobility and generates economic benefits to firms and households. Improved mobility helps reduce regional disparity and enhance regional integration But rapid motorization also causes problems ... Pressure in energy consumption and oil imports Transport increasingly a leading driver of overall consumption, contributing more than one-third of China’s total oil consumption Environmental pollution Among 340 cities, 58% do not attain the standards 45-60% of NOx and 85 of CO are from mobile sources in most Chinese cities Congestion can affect efficiency of urban economies which contributes 80% of the national GDP In Beijing average peak-hour speeds on arterial roads have declined from 45 km/hr in 1994 to about 10 km/hr in 2005 Urban transport problems are getting worse … Ownership and use of motor vehicles in China are heavily concentrated in cities Beijing: Experienced tenfold increase of private cars in the last 10 years, and widespread congestion Shanghai: Experienced increases of private cars from 10k to 250k in 8 years and rising congestion Shenzhen: Traffic accidents are a main cause of death, especially among the 20-40 age group Nationwide: Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon from auto emissions account for nearly 80% of the total in urban areas. More cars do not make everyone happier … Majority of urban households are car-less Their needs for mobility is seriously under-served by public policy Road congestion is making bus operations more and more difficult Bicycle right-of-way, pedestrian sidewalks, and roadside trees are often replaced by motor