华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析.doc

华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析 史军1 丁一汇2 崔林丽3 (1上海市气候中心, 上海, 200030; 2国家气候中心, 北京, 100081; 3上海市卫星遥感与测量应用中心, 上海, 201100) 摘 要 基于华东气象站点1960～2005年逐日最高地面气温和同期西太平洋副高环流指数、赤道太平洋海温和登陆华东及我国的台风个数，分析了华东极端高温日数和高温日平均最高气温的时空动态变化特征及高温成因。结果表明：华东每年高温日数和高温日平均最高气温表现出较大的时间动态变化和空间地域差异。在过去45年间，华东高温日数发生了多-少-多的年代际变化，高温日平均最高气温发生了高-低-高的年代际变化。高温日数在华东中南及西南部较多，而在华东东部沿海和北部较少。高温日平均最高气温在华东中西部的浙江、安徽和江西大部分地区较高。高温日数和高温日平均最高气温在不同地区表现出不同类型的跃变和跃变时间。在华东南部一些地区，高温日数与夏季西太平洋副高面积和强度指数、上年下半年Ni?o登陆我国的台风个数Ding Yihui2 Cui Linli3 (1Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai, 200030; 2National Climate Center ,Beijing,100081; 3Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Shanghai, 201100) Abstract: The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the frequency of extreme maximum temperature (EMT) days as well as mean maximum temperature (MMT) during the EMT days in East China have been analyzed by using daily maximum surface air temperature from 1960 to 2005, the West Pacific subtropical high intensity and area index, the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and the number of landfall typhoons. The results show that the EMT days and the MMT during the EMT days have 资助项目 国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAK13B05)和上海市气象局启明星项目(2005Q5)E-mail: shij@lreis.ac.cn large temporal variation and regional difference. In the past 45 years, the EMT days show more-less-more inter-decadal variability and the MMT during the EMT days has a higher-lower-higher inter-decadal variability. There are more EMT days in the south-central and southwest parts of East China, and less in the east coastland area and north part. The MMT during the EMT days is relatively higher in the most part of Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the middle and west parts of East China. In addition, the EMT days and the MMT during the EMT days show different type and timing of jump change. In East China, particularly, in its southern part, the EMT days are positively correlated with the West Pacific subtropical high intensity and area index, the Ni?o4 4 SST in the last half