人口预测基本方法.ppt

;Population Projection of China;Ⅰ.General Condition of Population Projection;One example: Under enumeration of youth and young adults – Comparison of sampling survey and evaluation;Ⅱ. Method of Projection;1. Basic steps (example: chart of projection of urban-rural population); Cohort-component Method 1、Birth population prediction (出生人口预测); Cohort-component Method 2、0 year old population prediction ( 0岁人口预测); Cohort-component Method 3、Projection of population of all ages (各年龄人口预测); 2. Base data --Based on 2000 census;3. Assumptions of deaths, births and migration  ⑴ Deaths--Survivors by sex in life table;⑵Births -- Proportion of age-specific fertility in TFR by urban-rural; ⑶ Migration;4. Time range ;5. Scenario of projection ⑴ Life expectancy at birth ; ⑵ TFR by urban-rural; ⑶Urbanization Level LevelⅠ-- 60% in 2030; Level Ⅱ-- 65% in 2030 ;Integrated Scenario (example);Ⅲ. Results of Projection--Based on 2000 Census;1. Total Population Projection  Different Scenario Population of Urban-Rural with Different TFR Scenario (LOW Medium High) (in 100 million);2. Population Growth Projection(1) Births;(2) Projection on Urban-rural Population; ⑵ Urban-rural Population; (3) Growth of Urban Population; 3. Age Structure Projection (1) Dependency Ratio; (1) Dependency Ratio; (2) Working-age Population; (2) Working-age Population ;(3) Elder Population ; (3) Elder Population; (4) School-age Population; (4) School-age Population; (5) Population Pyramid ; ;Urban of China, 2010 (Projection); Rural of China, 2050 (Projection); Thanks!