科技投入与经济增长的互动机制.docx

PAGE 8 科技投入与经济增长的互动机制研究 ——基于珠三角地区静态和动态面板数据的实证研究 已见刊 摘要：基于珠三角区域经济体面板数据，对比分析静态和动态面板数据模型，对珠三角地区的科技投入与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果表明，从整体来看，珠三角地区的科技投入与经济增长之间有着显著的长期均衡关系，两者互为格兰杰原因，即存在互动机制。从动态角度来看，上年经济增长对当年经济增长有着显著影响，科技投入作用的发挥是一个动态累积的过程，继而分析了动态个体随机效应回归模型，发现珠三角各市经济增长的自发效应差异显著并作原因分析，最后提出科技投入应该根据各地市的产业结构特点来合理安排，而不能片面追求科技投入在区域分布上的均衡性。 关键词：科技投入；经济增长；静态面板；动态面板；个体随机效应 中图分类号：F062.3 文献标识码：A The Interactive Mechanism between Science and Technology Input and Economic Growth —The empirical research based on the static and dynamic panel data in Pearl River Delta Area ZHANG Zhen-gang, TIAN Shuai (School of Business and Management, South China University of Technology, GuangZhou 510641, China) Abstract: Based on the Pearl River Delta municipal panel data, contrastively analyzing static and dynamic panel data model, this paper makes the empirical research for the relationship between science and technology input and economic growth in the Pearl River Delta region. Looking from the dynamic angle, the economic growth of last year has the remarkable influence to the economic growth of this year, compared with static panel data model, the result shows that there is the significant long-run equilibrium relationship between science and technology input and economic growth on the whole, moreover they are the Granger reason mutually, with the interactive mechanism., displaying the function of science and technology input is a dynamic accumulation process. Subsequently, through constructing the individual random effect regression model and analyzing it, this paper finds that there is the conspicuous difference among the spontaneous effects of economic growth among each city of Pearl River Delta Area and makes the reason analysis, finally, this paper proposes that the science and technology input should be arranged reasonably according to the various industrial structure characteristic of each city, instead of one-sidedly pursuing the equalization in regional distribution of the science and techn