基于景气数的就业监测预警系统研究.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 32 基于景气指数的就业监测预警系统研究 暨南大学 许冠明、李波、郭绮文 摘要：本文运用景气指数模型对就业状况进行监测与预警。首先，本文对景气指数模型进行了介绍。景气指数模型主要包括以下四个部分：景气指标的选择与分类、景气指数的计算、预警信号系统的构建以及景气指数的预测。然后，本文运用R语言对这四个部分进行了整合并形成了一个完整的就业监测预警系统。最后，本文构建了广州市就业景气指标体系，使用已经建立的就业监测预警系统对2003年第一季度到2010年第三季度的数据进行实证分析。实证分析结果如下：2010年第三季度，扩散指数显示广州市就业状况处于景气空间；合成指数显示广州市就业状况即将处于一个循环的顶点并开始下降；预警信号系统显示当前就业状况处于稳定状态，未来四个季度内也将处于稳定状态。 关键词：景气指数；就业监测；预警；季节调整；指标体系 Abstract：This article supervises and warns the employment situation by Prosperity Indicator Model. Firstly, the paper has a brief introduction of Prosperity Indicator Model, which consists of four parts: the choice and classification of Prosperity Index, the calculation of Prosperity Indicator, the construction of Early-Warning Signal System and the forecast of Prosperity Indicator. Besides, based on R-language, the four parts are united together and a complete system is built. At last, the article constructs Prosperity Index System of employment situation in Guangzhou and makes an empirical analysis by quarterly data of 2003-2010 and the supervising and warning system of employment situation. Results shows that: In the third quarter of 2010, Diffusion Index indicates the employment situation in Guangzhou is in prosperity space, Composite Index indicates the employment situation in Guangzhou is about to achieve the peak of a cycle and will decline in the near future and Early Warning Signal System indicates the current employment situation is stable and it will continue in the next four quarters. Key words: prosperity indicator; monitoring of employment; early warning; quarterly adjustment; index system. 目 录  TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l _Toc297195932 一、引言  PAGEREF _Toc297195932 \h 4  HYPERLINK \l _Toc297195933 二、研究现状与存在问题  PAGEREF _Toc297195933 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l _Toc297195934 （一）景气监测预警研究现状  PAGEREF _Toc297195934 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l _Toc297195935 （二）就业监测预警研究现状  PAGEREF _Toc297195935 \h 6  HYPERLINK \l _Toc297195936 （三）目前就业监测预警研究所存在的问题  P