2014年三季度住宅报告(高力国际).pdfVIP

Research Forecast Report 上海住宅市场 Shanghai | Residential 3Q 2014 MARKET OVERVIEW On 30 September 2014, the People’s Bank of China released a new set of measures to ease mortgage terms for first home purchasers and qualified second home purchasers, in an attempt to boost demand. This announcement came after a slowdown in home purchases in 3Q14, as Shanghai maintained its restrictions on house purchases, despite the lifting or relaxation of these policies in many cities during this quarter. However, the high- end sector registered a milder annual decrease in transactions, as demand from upgraders and investors in this sector persisted. On the back of the q-o-q decrease in overall transaction volume, some developers offered greater price incentives in an effort to boost sales. Regardless, many prospective purchasers continued to hold a wait-and-see attitude amidst the general decline in residential real estate market. The land sales market slowed in light of tightened credit regulations and surging land prices. Consequently, the overall land sales transaction volume decreased on an annual basis. SUPPLY The supply of Shanghai’s new commodity houses increased by 23.0% q-o-q and 8.4% y-o-y to approximately 3.26 million sqm, as developers boosted supply with the goal of increasing sales during the traditional sales season. By category, the supply of villas dropped by 9.4% q-o-q and 13.1% y-o-y to 281,498 sqm. 12 out of 19 districts recorded villa transactions. Of those 12 districts, Songjiang district saw the highest supply of new villas, accounting for 22.2% of total new villa supply. By project, The Graces in Songjiang district recorded the highest supply of villas at 224 units (approximately 31,949 sqm), followed by Zhaoshang Haiting in Fengxian district at 208 units (28,157 sqm). In contrast, the supply volume of apartments edged up by 27.3% q-o-q and 11.0% y-o-y, to approximately 2.98 million sqm. Baoshan district recorded the highest s