中国经济周期的福利成本1978～2004.pdfVIP

? 22 ? 《数量经济技术经济研究)) 2007 年第 1 期 中国经济周期的稿剥或本: 1978-2004 陈太明 (东北对经大学经济学院) E摘要E 本文通过 Lucas 理论模型，探讨中国改革开放以来经济题期的福利或 本，得出以下结论:在取相同的辑对风险统避系数情况.下，中国居民消费发生的结 构性变化导致 1990 年之后的经济周期福利成本显著小于 1990 年之前的经济建黯福 利成本:中国 1990 年之前的经济窍黯福科成本是美国经济周期福利成本的 4 倍多， 中国 1990 年之后的经济周期福利成本小于美国的经济周期福利成本。为尽可能或 小经济周期的福利成本，中国应该坚定不移地积极进行市场化改革，从而最终建立 完善的市场经济体制。 关键萄经济周期福科成本消费波动 中圈分类号 F037 文献标iR萄 A The Welfare Cost of China s Business Cycles: 1978-2004 Abstract: Thís paper discusses the welfare cost of China s business cycle through a Lu臼s s theoretícal model. The paper draws several conclusions as fol? lows: with the same coefficient of relatíve risk aversion, the structural change of Chinese consumption makεs that the welfare cost of China s business cycle after 1990 ís obviously less than the welfarεcost of China s business cycle before 1990. With the s但ne coefficient of relative risk aversion, the welfare cost of China s bus? iness cycle before 1990 is 4 times as much as the welfare cost of Ame古代a s business cycle. but the welfare C05t of China 5 business cycle after 1990 is less than the wel? fare cost of America sbusiness cycle. In order to decrease thεwelfare cost of Chi? nas businεS5 cyclεas much as possible. Chína should unalterably and aggressively carry out the marketing change and ultimately create a perfect market economy syste口1. Key words: Business Cycle; Welfare Cost; Consumption Fluctuation 中国经济周期的福利成本: 1978-2004 ? 23 ? 号! 一国的宏现经济，从长期来看表理为经济增长，从短期来看表现为经济拨动。政蔚和宏 观经济学家不但