我国石油炼制行业节能减排潜力仿真模型设计.docVIP

Modeling and Simulation 建模与仿真, 2012, 1, 25-32 /10.12677/mos.2012.11004 Published Online August 2012 (/journal/mos.html) Design for Potential Simulation Model of Energy-Saving and Emission-Reducing in China’s Petrochemical Industry Qi Zhang, Yizhen Zhang School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Dongying Email: franckie77@ Received: May 21 , 2012; revised: Jun. 16 , 2012; accepted: Jun. 25 , 2012 st th th Abstract: With the era of low-carbon economy, China is gradually implementing the sustainable development which is based on low energy consumption and low pollution, and has put forward the strategic target of energy conservation and emission reduction explicitly in “12th Five Year Plan”. Referencing the international research methods in the potential of energy-saving emission reduction, which combined SD model with LEAP model, the potential of energy conserva- tion and emission reduction in our country’s petroleum refining industry can be forecasted accurately. Firstly, based on SD model and the amount of energy consumption in industries, the requirements of oil production and refined products in current and future several years can be estimated. Secondly, putting the data and relevant indicators into LEAP model can get the baseline scenario and ideal scenario. Then, making a comparative analysis between the two scenarios and the reference scenario which come from the conclusions about existing conditions can find problems and potential. Fi- nally, some relevant feasible suggestions are put forward. Keywords: System Dynamics; LEAP Model; Petroleum Refining; Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction 我国石油炼制行业节能减排潜力仿真模型设计 张 琪，张义珍 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院，东营 Email: franckie77@ 收稿日期：2012年 5月 21日；修回日期：2012年 6月 16日；录用日期：2012年 6月 25日 摘 要：随着低碳经济时代的到来，我国也逐步实行以低能耗、低污染为基点的可持续发展模式，“十二五”规