Ｆｕｔｕｒｅ Ｓｈｏｃｋ：Ｓｏｕｔｈｅａｓｔ Ａｓｉａ Ｉｓ Ｒｕｎｎｉｎｇｏｕｔ ｏｆ Ｇａｓ.docVIP

Ｆｕｔｕｒｅ Ｓｈｏｃｋ：Ｓｏｕｔｈｅａｓｔ Ａｓｉａ Ｉｓ Ｒｕｎｎｉｎｇｏｕｔ ｏｆ Ｇａｓ 　　When crude oil surged past US $70 a barrel inmid-2006, Southeast Asian governments were forcedto confront an inconvenient truth that: income levelscould not be sustained unless new energy sourceswere found, and quickly. 　　The World Bank has calculated that oil-importdependency tdmmed as much as 1% off the regionsgross domestic product last year, as higher productioncosts eroded export earnings, boosted freightoverheads and inflated food pdces. 　　Add in the threat posed by climate change, as wellas the rising tide of diplomatic pressure for the ThirdWodd to meet emission targets under the KyotoProtocol, and Southeast Asias future shock of energydepletion has suddenly become all too real. 　　Climate change cleady poses a major threat to thelivelihoods and environments of the ASEAN region,Hans Verolme, director of the Wodd Wild Fund forNatures Global Climate Change Program, told theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations summit inCebu, Philippines, January. The most effmient andeconomic way to reduce oil dependence wilt bethrough a stronger regionwide effort on energyefficiency. 　　 Of the 10 emerging and developing countrieswithin the ASEAN bloc, only Indonesia and Malaysiaare relatively self-sufficient in crude oil - and thatcomfort zone will evaporate within two decades, alongwith most natural-gas supplies. 　　From the global perspective, the US Department ofEnergy has calculated that oil demand will grow by35% between 2004 and 2025 - from 82 millionbarrels per day to 111 million 　　 Output would need to dse by a similar amount.However, this assumes that the major producers,including Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, will double oreven triple their production; few independent analystsnow believe this will be possible. A greater likelihoodis that crude-oil supplies to Asia will begin to dry upwithin two decades. 　　But while the world oil markets may be fickle andmanipulative, the alternatives are not so obvious,even w