Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees for Predicting Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees for Predicting Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis 英文参考文献.doc

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Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees for Predicting Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis 英文参考文献

BayesianClassificationandRegressionTreesfor PredictingIncidenceofCryptosporidiosis WenbiaoHu1,2*,RebeccaA.O’Leary3,KerrieMengersen1,SamanthaLowChoy1,4 1Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, 2School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 3Australian Institute of Marine Science, The Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia, 4Biosecurity Statistics, CooperativeResearchCentreforNationalPlantBiosecurity,Canberra,AustralianCapitalTerritory,Australia Abstract Background:Classificationandregressiontree(CART)modelsaretree-basedexploratorydataanalysismethodswhichhave beenshowntobeveryusefulinidentifyingandestimatingcomplexhierarchicalrelationshipsinecological andmedical contexts.Inthispaper,aBayesianCARTmodelisdescribedandappliedtotheproblemofmodellingthecryptosporidiosis infectioninQueensland,Australia. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:WecomparedtheresultsofaBayesianCARTmodelwiththoseobtainedusingaBayesian spatialconditionalautoregressive(CAR)model.Overall,theanalysesindicatedthatthenatureandmagnitudeoftheeffect estimates weresimilar forthe twomethodsin this study, buttheCART modelmoreeasilyaccommodated higher order interactioneffects. Conclusions/Significance:ABayesianCARTmodelforidentificationandestimationofthespatialdistributionofdiseaserisk isusefulinmonitoringandassessmentofinfectiousdiseasespreventionandcontrol. Citation:HuW,O’LearyRA,MengersenK,LowChoyS(2011)BayesianClassificationandRegressionTreesforPredictingIncidenceofCryptosporidiosis.PLoS ONE6(8):e23903.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023903 Editor:ZhengSu,GenentechInc.,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedJanuary24,2011;AcceptedJuly28,2011;PublishedAugust31,2011 Copyright:?2011Huetal.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermitsunrestricted use,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited.