Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees The PredictAL Study 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees The PredictAL Study 英文参考文献.doc

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Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees The PredictAL Study 英文参考文献

DevelopmentandValidationofaRiskModelfor PredictionofHazardousAlcoholConsumptioninGeneral PracticeAttendees:ThePredictALStudy MichaelKing1,LouiseMarston3,IgorSvabˇ 6,Heidi-IngridMaaroos7,MirjamI.Geerlings8,MiguelXavier9, VicenteBenjamin10,FranciscoTorres-Gonzalez4,JuanAngelBellon-Saameno5,DanicaRotar6 ,Anu Aluoja7,SandraSaldivia10,BernardoCorrea9,IrwinNazareth2,3* 1DepartmentofMentalHealthSciences,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UnitedKingdom,2MedicalResearchCouncilGeneralPracticeResearchFramework,London, UnitedKingdom,3DepartmentofPrimaryCareandPopulationHealth,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UnitedKingdom,4DepartmentofPsychiatry,Universityof Granada,Granada,Spain,5ElPaloHealthCentre,DepartmentofPreventiveMedicine,Malaga,Spain,6DepartmentofFamilyMedicine,UniversityofLjubljana,Ljubljana, Slovenia,7FacultyofMedicine,UniversityofTartu,Tartu,Estonia,8UniversityMedicalCenter,Utrecht,TheNetherlands,9CentrodeEstudosdeDoencasCronicas,Faculdade deCie?nciasMe′dicas,UniversidadeNovadeLisboa,Lisbon,Portugal,10DepartamentodePsiquiatr?′aySaludMental,UniversidaddeConcepcio′n,Concepcio′n,Chile Abstract Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinkingat safe limits.Weaimedtodevelopapredictionmodel(predictAL)forthedevelopmentofhazardousdrinkinginsafedrinkers. Methods:AprospectivecohortstudyofadultgeneralpracticeattendeesinsixEuropeancountriesandChilefollowedup over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendeesrecordedAUDITscoresbelow8inmenand5inwomenatrecruitmentandwereusedinmodellingrisk.38risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression.Themodelwascorrectedforoverfittingandtestedinanexternalpopulation.Themainoutcomewashazardous drinkingdefinedbyanAUDITscore$8inmenand$5inwomen. Results:69.0%ofattendeeswererecruited,ofwhom89.5%participatedagainaftersixmonths.Theris