Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections Influenza as an Example 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections Influenza as an Example 英文参考文献.doc

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Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections Influenza as an Example 英文参考文献

DynamicHealthPoliciesforControllingtheSpreadof EmergingInfections:InfluenzaasanExample RezaYaesoubi1,2*,TedCohen1,2,3 1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 2Division of Global Health Equity, BrighamandWomen’sHospital,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3DepartmentofEpidemiology,HarvardSchoolofPublicHealth,Boston,Massachusetts, UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Therecentappearanceandspreadofnovelinfectiouspathogensprovidemotivationforusingmodelsastoolstoguide publichealthdecision-making.Herewedescribeamodelingapproachfordevelopingdynamichealthpoliciesthatallowfor adaptivedecision-makingasnewdatabecomeavailableduringanepidemic.Incontrasttostatichealthpolicieswhichhave generallybeenselectedbycomparingtheperformanceofalimitednumberofpre-determinedsequencesofinterventions withinsimulationormathematicalmodels,dynamichealthpoliciesproduce‘‘real-time’’recommendationsforthechoiceof thebestcurrentinterventionbasedontheobservablestateoftheepidemic.Usingcumulativereal-timedatafordisease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preservethe overall health ofthe population. We illustrate the designandimplementationofadynamichealthpolicyforthecontrolofanovelstrainofinfluenza,whereweassumethat two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducingmeasures,suchassocialdistancingormaskuse,thatmaybeturned‘‘on’’or‘‘off’’repeatedlyduringthecourseof epidemic.Inthisexample,theoptimaldynamichealthpolicymaximizestheoverallpopulation’shealthduringtheepidemic byspecifyingatanypointoftime,basedonobservableconditions,(1)thenumberofindividualstovaccinateifvaccinesare available,and(2)whetherthetransmission-reducinginterventionshouldbeeitheremployedorremoved. Citation:YaesoubiR,CohenT(2011)DynamicHealthPol