Health Development versus Medical Relief Not a Turf Battle 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Health Development versus Medical Relief Not a Turf Battle 英文参考文献.doc

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Health Development versus Medical Relief Not a Turf Battle 英文参考文献

Correspondence Air Travel and the Spread of In?uenza: Important Caveats Cécile Viboud, Mark A. Miller, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar N. Bj?rnstad, Lone Simonsen While air travel contributes to the spread of in?uenza epidemics, the magnitude of impact is not clear compared to other factors—a crucial issue when considering a ?ight ban in the context of pandemic planning. Recent modeling efforts simulating the spread of pandemic in?uenza have concluded that such an intervention would matter little relative to other interventions [1–3]. But this assessment has now been challenged by an observational study of in?uenza in the winter following the post-9/11/2001 depression in air traf?c. Brownstein and colleagues’ study published in the September issue of PLoS Medicine [4] correlates variations in air traf?c volume with patterns of timing and spread in in?uenza epidemics, based on United States mortality data from nine epidemic seasons between 1996 and 2005. While we ?nd the study interesting, we have identi?ed several important caveats and question the robustness of the conclusions. The core of this study’s results lies in the observation that the 2001–2002 in?uenza epidemic immediately following 9/11 was late in the season and peaked in March (week of year 11), whereas the eight surrounding epidemics peaked between the end of December and the end of February (week of year 52 to 9). The authors attribute this delay to the 27% decline in air traf?c that followed 9/11. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030503.g001 Figure 1. Patterns of Timing (A) and Spread (B) of 30 In? uenza Epidemics in the US, Together with Trends in Air Travel Statistics In?uenza patterns are based on weekly national vital statistics from 1972 to 2002 [5]. Air travel statistics represent the annual number of domestic and international passengers on US air carriers (scheduled ?ights, secondary y-axis) [7]. (A) Time series of timing of national peaks of in?uenza mortality. The 2001–2002 epidemic following 9/11 pea