Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 英文参考文献.doc

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Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 英文参考文献

MathematicalModelingoftheEffectivenessof FacemasksinReducingtheSpreadofNovelInfluenzaA (H1N1) SamanthaM.Tracht1,2*,SaraY.DelValle1,JamesM.Hyman3 1Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America, 2Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Physics, Capital University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America, 3Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Group,TheoreticalDivision,LosAlamosNationalLaboratory,LosAlamos,NewMexico,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic(H1N1)2009,particularlyoptionsthatarecosteffectiveandrelativelyeasytoimplement.Recentexperienceswith the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves againstinfection;however,littleresearchhasbeendonetoquantifytheimpactofusingfacemasksinreducingthespread ofdisease.Weconstructandanalyzeamathematicalmodelforapopulationinwhichsomepeoplewearfacemasksduring thepandemicandquantifyimpactofthesemasksonthespreadofinfluenza.Toestimatetheparametervaluesusedforthe effectivenessoffacemasks,weusedavailabledatafromstudiesonN95respiratorsandsurgicalfacemasks.Theresultsshow thatifN95respiratorsareonly20%effectiveinreducingsusceptibilityandinfectivity,only10%ofthepopulationwould havetowearthemtoreducethenumberofinfluenzaA(H1N1)casesby20%.Wecanconcludefromourmodelthat,ifworn properly,facemasksareaneffectiveinterventionstrategyinreducingthespreadofpandemic(H1N1)2009. Citation: Tracht SM, Del Valle SY, Hyman JM (2010) Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1).PLoSONE5(2):e9018.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009018 Editor:DeeA.Carter,UniversityofSydney,Australia Received