Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia 英文参考文献.doc

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Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia 英文参考文献

PredictingtheBenefitsofBananaBunchyTopVirus ExclusionfromCommercialPlantationsinAustralia DavidC.Cook1,2,3,4*,ShuangLiu2,4,5,JacquelineEdwards2,6,OscarN.Villalta2,6 , Jean-PhilippeAurambout2,7,DarrenJ.Kriticos2,5,8,9,AndreDrenth10,PaulJ.DeBarro2,11 1Department of Agriculture and Food, Bunbury, Western Australia, Australia, 2Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity, Bruce, Australian Capital Territory,Australia,3TheUniversityofWesternAustralia,Crawley,WesternAustralia,Australia,4AustralianCentreforBiosecurityandEnvironmentalEconomics,Canberra, AustralianCapitalTerritory,Australia,5CSIROEcosystemSciences,Canberra,AustralianCapitalTerritory,Australia,6DepartmentofPrimaryIndustries,Knoxfield,Victoria, Australia, 7Department of Primary Industries, Parkville, Victoria, Australia, 8Charles Sturt University, Barton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia, 9The University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,Minnesota,UnitedStatesofAmerica,10TheUniversityofQueensland,DuttonPark,Queensland,Australia,11CSIROEcosystemSciences,Dutton Park,Queensland,Australia Abstract Benefitcostanalysisisatriedandtestedanalyticalframeworkthatcanclearlycommunicatelikelynetchangesinproducer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficulttopredictpolicybenefitsovertimeduetocomplexbiophysicalinteractionsbetweeninvasivespecies,theirhosts, andtheenvironment.Inthispaper,wedemonstratehowabreak-evenstylebenefitcostanalysisremainshighlyrelevantto biosecuritydecision-makersusingtheexampleofbananabunchytopvirus,aplantpathogentargetedforeradicationfrom banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generatearangeofpossi