Prediction of breeding values when variances are not known 英文参考文献.docVIP

Prediction of breeding values when variances are not known * of Animal Sciences University of Illinois at (lrbana Champaign, U.S.A. Centre de Recherches Zootechniques, F 78350 Jouy-en-Josas Summary The joint distribution of breeding values and of records usually depends on unknown parameters such as means, variances distribution. If the objective of the analysis is to make selection decisions, these parameters should be considered as ? nuisances ?. If the values of the parameters are unknown, the state of uncertainty can be represented by a prior probability distribution. information contributed by the data to form a posterior distribution from which the needed under alternative states predictors are calculated after integrating out the ? of knowledge is discussed in this paper and the corresponding solutions presented. It is shown that when the structure is unknown, modal estimators of variance parameters should be nuisances Prediction ?. considered. Because a Bayesian framework is adopted, the estimates so obtained are necessarily non-negative. If prior knowledge about means and variances is completely tion is multivariate normal, the ? optimal predictors in the sense of maximizing the expected merit of the selected candidates can be approximated by using the ? mixed model equations ? with the unknown variances replaced by restricted maximum likelihood estimates. This leads to La distribution conjointe des valeurs génétiques et des performances dépend habituellement de paramètres inconnus tels que les espérances, les variances et covariances dans le cas de la distribution multinormale. Quand l’analyse statistique vise à des décisions de sélection, ces paramètres devraient être considérés comme des paramètres ? parasites ?. L’état d’incertitude sur les paramètres peut être représenté par une distribution a priori. Celle-ci, combinée à l’information procurée par les données, permet d’about