Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread 英文参考文献.doc

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Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread 英文参考文献

PredictivePowerofAirTravelandSocio-EconomicData forEarlyPandemicSpread ParviezHosseini1*,SusanneH.Sokolow2,KurtJ.Vandegrift1,A.MarmKilpatrick2,PeterDaszak1* 1EcoHealthAlliance(formerlyWildlifeTrust),NewYork,NewYork,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2UniversityofCaliforniaSantaCruz,SantaCruz,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resourcesamongnations.Critical,earlycontrolstepswouldbegreatlyenhancedifthekeyriskfactorscanbeidentifiedthat accuratelypredictearlydiseasespreadimmediatelyafteremergence. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:Here,weexaminetheroleoftravel,trade,andnationalhealthcareresourcesinpredicting theemergenceandinitialspreadof2009A/H1N1influenza.Wefindthatincorporatingnationalhealthcareresourcedata intoouranalysesallowedamuchgreatercapacitytopredicttheinternationalspreadofthisvirus.Incountrieswithlower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testingandreporting,aswellasothersocio-politicalissues.Wealsoreportsubstantialinternationaltradeinliveswineand poultryinthedecadeprecedingthepandemicwhichmayhavecontributedtotheemergenceandmixedgenotypeofthis pandemicstrain.However,thelackofknowledgeofrecentevolutionofeachH1N1viralgenesegmentprecludestheuseof thisapproachtodetermineviralorigins. Conclusions/Significance:Weconcludethatstrategiestopreventpandemicinfluenzavirusemergenceandspreadinthe future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits,forallparties,whenhigherincomecountriesprovideadditionalhealthcareresourcesforlowerincomecountries, particularly those that ha