Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks 英文参考文献.doc

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Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks 英文参考文献

Quasi-NeutralTheoryofEpidemicOutbreaks OscarA.Pinto1,2,MiguelA.Mun?oz2* 1DepartamentodeF?′sica,InstitutodeF?′sicaAplicada,UniversidadNacionaldeSanLuis-CONICET,SanLuis,Argentina,2DepartamentodeElectromagnetismoyF?′sicade laMateria,FacultaddeCiencias,InstitutodeF?′sicaTeo′ricayComputacionalCarlosI,UniversidaddeGranada,Granada,Spain Abstract Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale- invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for ‘‘accidental pathogens’’whichleadstopower-lawdistributedoutbreakswithoutapparentneedofparameterfinetuning.Thismodel hasbeenclaimedtoberelatedtoself-organizedcriticality,anditscriticalpropertieshavebeenconjecturedtoberelatedto directedpercolation.Instead,weshowthatthisisa(quasi)neutralmodel,analogoustothoseusedinPopulationGenetics andEcology,withthesamecriticalbehaviorasthevoter-model,i.e.thetheoryofaccidentalpathogensisa(quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associatedscalingexponents,inaparsimoniousandsimpleway. Citation:PintoOA,Mun?ozMA(2011)Quasi-NeutralTheoryofEpidemicOutbreaks.PLoSONE6(7):e21946.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021946 Editor:MichaelGeorgeRoberts,MasseyUniversity,NewZealand ReceivedApril15,2011;AcceptedJune13,2011;PublishedJuly8,2011 Copyright: ? 2011 Pinto, Mun?oz. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding: The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish MICINN-FEDER under project FIS2009-08451, from Junta de Andaluc?′a Proyecto de ExcelenciaP09FQM-4682,andfromtheAccio′nIntegradaHispano-Argentina,MICINNAR2009-0003.Thefundershadnoroleinstudydesign,datacollectionand analysis,decisiontopublish,orpreparationof