Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research A Systematic Review 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research A Systematic Review 英文参考文献.doc

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Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research A Systematic Review 英文参考文献

ReportingandMethodsinClinicalPredictionResearch:A SystematicReview WalterBouwmeester1.,NicolaasP.A.Zuithoff1.,SusanMallett2,MirjamI.Geerlings1, YvonneVergouwe1,3,EwoutW.Steyerberg3,DouglasG.Altman4,KarelG.M.Moons1* 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands, 2Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, UniversityofOxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom,3DepartmentofPublicHealth,ErasmusMC,Rotterdam,TheNetherlands,4CentreforStatisticsinMedicine,Universityof Oxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom Abstract Background: We investigated the reporting and methods of prediction studies, focusing on aims, designs, participant selection,outcomes,predictors,statisticalpower,statisticalmethods,andpredictiveperformancemeasures. MethodsandFindings:Weusedafullhandsearchtoidentifyallpredictionstudiespublishedin2008insixhighimpact general medical journals. We developed a comprehensive item list to systematically score conduct and reporting of the studies,basedonrecentrecommendationsforpredictionresearch.Tworeviewersindependentlyscoredthestudies.We retrieved71papersforfulltextreview:51werepredictorfindingstudies,14werepredictionmodeldevelopmentstudies, three addressed an external validation of a previously developed model, and three reported on a model’s impact on participantoutcome.Studydesignwasunclearin15%ofstudies,andaprospectivecohortwasusedinmoststudies(60%). Descriptions of the participants and definitions of predictor and outcome were generally good. Despite many recommendations against doing so, continuous predictors were often dichotomized (32% of studies). The number of eventsperpredictorasameasureofstatisticalpowercouldnotbedeterminedin67%ofthestudies;oftheremainder,53% hadfewerthanthecommonlyrecommendedvalueofteneventsperpredictor.Methodsforaprioriselectionofcandidate predictorsweredescribedinmoststudies(68%).Asubstantialnumberofstudiesreliedonap-valuecut-offofp,0.05to select predictors in the multivariable analyses (29%