物流系统2–forecast.pptxVIP

Forecasting;Introduction ;Forecasting is an Integral Part of Business Planning;Forecasting;Forecast Horizons in Operation Planning – Figure 1;FORECASTING;;;Forecasting Techniques;Qualitative forecasting methods;Qualitative forecasting models;Quantity forecasting methods;Selection of Forecasting Techniques;Selection of Forecasting Techniques…;Time Series Methods;16;Simple Moving Average Forecast;Moving Average -- example;Weighted Moving Average;Summary of Moving Averages;Moving Average Lags a Trend – Figure 2;Simple Exponential Smoothing Forecast;Exercise 1;b) Using a weighted moving average, what is the forecast for September with weights of 0.20, 0.30, and 0.50 for June, July and August, respectively? W1= 0.5; W2= 0.3; W3= 0.2 F9= 170(0.5) + 180(0.3) + 140(0.2) = 167;c) Using simple exponential smoothing and assuming that the forecast for June had been 130, calculate the forecast for September with a smoothing constant alpha of 0.30. Suppose F6= 130, α = 0.3，then F7= F6+ α(A6 –F6)= 130+0.3(140-130) =133 F8 =133+0.3(180-133)=147.10 F9 =149.1+0.3(170-147.10)=154;26;Evaluating Forecasts;Mean Absolute Error;Mean Absolute Percentage Error;Root Mean Squared Error;Double Exponential Smoothing;例3、二次指数平滑值的求解;例3、二次指数平滑值的求解;34;Regression Forecasting Models ;Causal Forecasting Models ;Simple Linear Regression;Simple Linear Regression;Simple Linear Regression;Multiple Linear Regression;Measure of Goodness-of -fit;Regression Forecasting Models ;Examples of Various Values of the Correlation Coefficient;Formulation of Regression Models