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Estimating Arrival Numbers for Informal Recreation A Geographical Approach and Case Study of British Woodlands.doc

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Estimating Arrival Numbers for Informal Recreation A Geographical Approach and Case Study of British Woodlands

Sustainability 2010, 2, 684-701; doi:10.3390/su2020684 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article Estimating Arrival Numbers for Informal Recreation: A Geographical Approach and Case Study of British Woodlands Andy Jones 1,*, Jan Wright 1, Ian Bateman 1 and Marije Schaafsma 2 1 CSERGE, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, NR4 7TJ, UK; E-Mails: jan.wright@sandringhamestate.co.uk (J.W.); i.bateman@uea.ac.uk (I.B.) 2 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; E-Mail: marije.schaafsma@ivm.vu.nl * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: a.p.jones@uea.ac.uk; Tel.: +44-1603-593127; Fax: +44-1603-591327. Received: 14 January 2010 / Accepted: 21 February 2010 / Published: 25 February 2010 Abstract: This paper describes a novel methodology for generating models of demand for informal outdoor recreation. We analyze visitor data from multiple forest sites across Great Britain. We introduce a wide range of variables typically omitted from most economic demand models of recreation. These include on-site characteristics, and off-site locational drivers of visitation including substitute and complement availability. A Poisson multilevel model is used to model visitor counts, and the methodology is applied to a dataset of more than 10,000 visits to open-access woodland sites. Results confirm it identifies a broader range of demand drivers than previously observed. The use of nationally available explanatory variables enhances the transferability and hence general applicability of the methodology. Keywords: forests; arrival modeling; sustainable tourism; transferrable demand 1. Introduction Day visits constitute one of the most significant of all leisure activities. Just within England the latest estimates suggested that there are currently around 900