基于伪寿命分布退化数据可靠性评估方法_马小兵.pdf

33 1 Vol.33 No. 1 2011 1 Systems Engineering and Electronics January 2011 : 1001506X(2011) 01022 05 马小兵, 王晋忠, 赵 宇 ( 北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京100191) : 提出一种利用加速退化数据对产品进行可靠性评估与 命预测的建模与参数估计方法首先, 针对 加速退化数据的特点, 建立了加速条件下特征参数退化曲线的连续时间函数模型进而, 结合工程中常用加速模 型, 建立了加速退化模型参数估计的整体似然函数, 并基于Fisher 信息阵采用整体推断的极大似然法给出整体模 型参数的区间估计该方法能够有效利用不同加速应力水平下产品退化数据的横向信息, 并综合连续时间函数 模型对产品退化曲线拟合性强的优点, 可提高产品可靠性评估与 命预测的精度以某电子产品为例进行了应 用实例分析 : 可靠性; 加速退化; 伪 命分布; 整体推断 : T B 114. 3 : A DOI: 10. 3969/j. issn. 1001506X. 2011. 01.46 Reliability assessment using constantstress accelerated degradation data based on pseudo life distribution MA Xiaobing, WANG Jinzhong, ZHAO Yu (School of R eliability and Systems Engineering , B eihang University, Beij ing 100191, China) Abstract: A method based on pseudo life distribution is proposed to evaluate reliability and predict lifetime using accelerated degradation data. Firstly, according to the characteristics of accelerated degradation data encountered in engineering, the analysis method for time continuous performance degradation series is given, and then degradation models for the whole samples are established. Secondly, a reliability function is derived based on the accelerated model, where the unknown parameters of the reliability function are obtained by inte gral inference w ith maximum likelihood estimation. The reliability confidence interval is given via Monte Carlo simulation using a Fisher information matrix. With the effective usage of degradation data under different accel erated stress levels as well as the strong adjustment advantages of the time continuous model, the accuracy relia bility assessment and lifetime prediction of produc