风电场风速与风功率预测方法研究综述.pdf

’ +、‘ GAOZHUAND 冀特稿专递TE m．m．…、…‘一、、… ．，棚l 风电场风速及风功率预测方法研究综述 王 颖1．魏云军2 ●摘要：随着全球能源形势日益严峻，传统的化石能源面临枯竭危机，清洁的可再生能源尤其是风能越来越受到● 人们重视．将来很可能替代化石能源成为主要能源。风速及风功率预测这一基础性研究课题对于风电场规划、风 功率的控制、风电并网后电网的安全经济运行有着重要的意义。本文就风速及风功率预测模型进行了归纳整理 和比较分析．对各种模型进行了客观评价，最后指出了未来预测模型的发展趋势。 关键词：风电场：风速；风功率；预测模型；综述 中图分类号：TM614 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673—7598(2011)ll一0018一04 Power Reviewon ModelofWind andWind Forecasting Speed WANG Yin91．WEIYun-jun2 ofElectric (1．School 430072，China； Engineering，WuhanUniversity，Wuhan 2．China International DesignResearch 410000，China) Machinery Engineering Institute，Changsha Abstract：Withthe of situationandthe oftraditionalfossil more energy increasindy舒mnessdobalenergy depletion crisis，peoplepay andmoreattentiontocleanandrenewable wind is to fossilfuelsa8 energy，especiallypower,whichlikelyreplace primaryenergy．Basic wind wind is tobetter ofwind controlofwind I七searchon of and farm、better forecastingspeed powermeaningfulplan poweroutput andmoresecureandeconomic of connectedwithwindfarm．Thismakesa and ofallkinds grid paper summarycomparison operation