西部地区公路基础设施投资与经济增长关系的协整分析.pdf

学兔兔 第4O卷，第3期 公 路 工 程 Vo1．40，No．3 2 0 1 5年 6月 Highway Engineering Jun．，2 0 1 5 西部地区公路基础设施投资与经济增长关系 的协整分析 贾兴利，单东辉，雷 天，景立竹 (长安大学 公路学院，陕西 西安 710064) [摘 要】公路建设投资与经济增长关系的确定对西部地区公路建设规划具有重要的指导意义。基于时间序 列数据，利用协整理论、向量自回归(VAR)模型和Granger因果检验对甘肃省公路基础设施投资与经济发展关系进 行实证研究。研究表明：1990—2011年甘肃省公路交通与经济发展存在长期均衡的协整关系和双向的Granger因 果关系；公路建设对经济增长的弹性为3．074 974；甘肃省公路交通与经济发展应保持长期均衡并适度超前的发展 战略，公路规划应超前2～3 a为宜。 [关键词】公路投资；经济增长；协整分析；Granger因果检验；甘肃省 [中圈分类号]F 540．34 [文献标识码】A [文章编号】1674—0610(2015)03—0063—07 Economic Development in Western China JIA Xingli，SHAN Donghui，LEI Tian，JING Lizhu (Chang’an University，School of Highway，Xi’an Shanxi 7 10064，China) [Abstract]The relationship between highway investment and economic development has a guiding significance for layout and construction of western China。Based on the time series data，the relationship between highway investment and economic development through Cointegration theory，VAR model and Granger causality test in GanSu province is studied in this paper．It indicates that there was Cointegration and two—way causality relationship between highway investment and economic development from 1 990 to 20 1 1；the elastic coefficient between highway investment and economic development is 3．074 974；be— sides，the conclusion is that there should be a long-term balance between highway investment and eco— nomic development with the strategy of the former moderately exceeding the latter，and in western China the exceeding period should be 2 to 3 years． [Key words]highway inves