基于时间序列趋势图的我国粮食产量主要影响因素分析.pdfVIP

179 广东农业科学 2013 年第 4 期 基于时间序列趋势图的我国粮食产量主要影响因素分析 王双迸1 ，李健英2 (1.财政部财政科学研究所，北京 l ∞142;2.南开大学经济学院，天津 3∞162) 摘要:依据改革开放以来我国粮食生产的历年样本数据，选取影响粮食总产量的播种面积、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、受 灾面积、机械总动力、粮食生产成本指数、粮食生产价格指数、财政支农资金等8个主要因素，并将这些因素划分为物质投入、资源 环境和政策因素3类，运用因子分析方法，对这些典型影响因子通过时间序列趋势图逐一进行多角度分析。结果发现，化肥施用量、 粮食播种面积和旱灾面积成为影响粮食产量的关键因素。在此基础上，针对如何提高粮食综合生产能力提出相应的对策措施。 关键词:粮食产量;影响因素;时间序列趋势图;改革开放以来 中图分类号: F326 .l 1 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1 ∞4-874X(2013)Q4-0179-Q4 Analysis on grain yield main impact factors based on the time-series trend graph in China 1 WANG Shuang-jin , LI Jian-yini (1. Reseαrch lnstitute for Fiscal Sc陀即e， Ministη of Finance , Beijing 1 ∞142， China 2. School of Economics , Nankαi University, Tianjin 3∞162， China) Abstract: On the basis of Chinas grain production sample data since the reform and opening up , eight main factors which affected total grain yield were selected, such 描 sown area, the amount of chemical fertilizer, effective irrigation 盯阁， affected area, total power of the machinery , index of the cost of grain pr叫uction， grain production price index , financial funds supporting 锦riculture. Then these factors were divided into three classes: material inputs, resources and environment and policy factors. It emphasized multi -angle analysis one by one on the typical impact factors by applying the time -series trend graph. On this basis , it proposed corresponding counterme面ures and suggestions that how to improve the overall grain production capacity. Ke