水稻褐飞虱发生程度气象预报方法的研究.pdfVIP

安徽农业科学 , Journal of Anhu i A gri. Sci. 2009 , 37 (2) : 668 - 67 1 责任编辑 　王淼 　责任校对 　吴晓燕 水稻褐飞虱发生程度气象预报方法的研究 1, 2 2 2 2 2 吕冬红 ,王海青 ,刘素萍 ,袁昌洪 ,刘 方 　 ( 1. 南京大学大气科学系 ,江苏南京 2 10008; 2. 江苏省泰州市气象局 ,江苏泰州 225300) 摘要　[ 目的 ]建立水稻稻飞虱发生程度预报方程 ,从气象条件的角度对每年的发生程度进行预测 ,指导稻飞虱的防治工作 。[方法 ]利 用江苏泰州地区历年气象资料和水稻稻飞虱发生资料 ,选取大量气象因子 ,采用逐步回归的方法 ,寻找和水稻稻飞虱发生密切相关的气 象因子 。[结果 ]前期气象因子与当年水稻稻飞虱发生密切相关; 3 ～5 月平均气温与 10 月上旬褐飞虱影响程度呈负相关; 2 ～4 月降水 量和降水日数与 10月上旬褐飞虱影响程度呈正相关 。[结论 ] 以前期气象因子通过逐步回归建立的预报方程可用于实际预测 。 关键词　稻飞虱;气象;预测 ( ) 中图分类号　S42 1　　文献标识码　A　　文章编号　0517 - 6611 2009 02 - 00668 - 04 Research on the W ea ther Foreca sting M ethod of R ice Brown Plan thopper O ccurrence ( ) L V D onghong et a l　 D ep artm ent of A tmo spheric Sciences, N anj ing Un iversity, N anj ing, J iangsu 2 10008 A b stract　[Objective ] The foreca sting equation of rice brown p lanthopp er occurrence wa s estab lished and the p revention and treatm ent of rice p lanthopp er were gu ided w ith the p rediction re su lt from the p ersp ective of the weather condition. [M ethod ] The data of the weather and rice p lanthopp er occurrence in Taizhou of J iangsu p rovince being taken as ba sic inform ation, the relation sh ip between m eteorological factor and rice p lanthopp er occurrence was analyzed w ith the m ethod of stepw ise regre ssion. [ R e su lts ] There was a clo se relation sh ip between the weather factor before its occurrence and the occurrence of rice p lanthopp er. There was negative relation sh ip between average temp erature from M arch to M ay and p lanthopp er occurrence in the early October and the p recip itation and the number of rain ing day in February to Ap ril wa s po sitively correlated w ith the p lantho