黄河源区气候和土地覆被变化对径流的影响_陈利群.pdf

31 27 2007,27(4) 559~565 China Environmental Science 1,2 1* , (1. , 100101 2. , 100086) 2 (SWAT VIC) 1960~2000 ., ,20 90 ,,95% .70~90 , 65%~80%;6%~16%;,14%~20%.20 90 . SWAT VIC X143,X16 A 2007 Influence of climate and land-cover change on runoff of the source regions of Yellow River. CHEN Li-qun1,2, LIU Chang-ming1* (1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China2.China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100086, China). China Environmental Science, 2007,27(4) 559~565 Abstract Runoff of the source regions of Yellow River decreased sharply in the 1990s, producing serious imbalance on water resource allocation and water pollution protection of Yellow River basin. Two distributed hydrologic models (SWAT and VIC) were adopted to analyzed the influence of climate and land-cover change on runoff between 1960 to 2000. The climate change was the main cause of runoff decrease. Before 1990, land cover change influenced a little on the runoff, the influence of climate change on the runoff was above 95%. In 1970~1990, the hydrologic effect of climate was about 65%~80%; the influence of land use change was probably 6%~16%; the hydrologic effect of eco-degradation and melt of frozen soil was almost 14%~20%. In the 1990s, the climate change was showing mainly the occurrence of the time and space distribution change of the precipitation in the source region of Yellow River and the raise of air temperature. Key words SWAT modelVIC model the source region of Yellow River climate change land-cover runoff 20 90 , , . ,,. 35% , , ., (GIS) [1 4] .